Checking your assumptions with the theory of change

In one of the previous lessons, we learnt about the Theory of Change of Approach.

In practice, we refer to Theory of Change when we are checking our assumptions to verify the logic of the pathway, to identify missing linkages and gaps between levels of change or changes that are nice to have, but really not essential to achieve the desired goal.

Sometimes, we identify a lot of activities and then we expect a “miracle” as the professor below achieving changes at the level of well-being. For example, if we train farmers in watershed management (activity), their communities will access to sufficient quality water (wellbeing).

As we have seen before, we design the pathways to sustainability from the top (vision/well-being) to the bottom (competencies for now, later we will identify also activities and resources).

And then we check the logic from the top to the bottom and viceversa from the bottom to the top.

This exercise help us to check the quality of the pathway, and thus the coherence and consistency of our theory of change.

What is a Theory of Change?

Practitioners’ (development workers, peacebuilders’…) decisions about what to do in a particular situation are based on assumptions about:

• how to bring about change
• how to bring about peace
• how to bring about sustainability…

Often implicit assumptions generate difficulties

• to implement the project
• to monitor and evaluate the outcomes

Different approaches to check the Theory of Change

The easiest way, to formulate the Theory of Change is just going level by level, checking if it makes sense:

If we … (activity), … will change their attitude (competences) and will use new practices (behavior) and if enough community members change theses practices…. this will generate changes at the community level (performance) and thus, contribute to the wellbeing of all people and the local ecosystems.

Check the Theory of Change of these pathways:

Designing and checking from the top to the bottom

In order to achieve that “rural communities get access to sufficient quality water in a sustainable way”, we need that these rural communities adopt an integral watershed management approach. For that, we need that role models from these communities promote integral watershed management practices. To be able to do so, these role models need to improve their competencies regarding integral watershed management practices and, in addition, they must strengthen their social and methodological competencies.

In order to reach more communities that get access to sufficient quality water in a sustainable way, it is key that national and local water institutions implement sustainable water management policies. To get there, we need that key decision-makers promote the approval of sustainable water management policies. For that, these key decision-makers need to be aware about the impact of deteriorated watersheds and its social and economic impact.

Checking and implementing from the bottom to the top

By training role models from rural communities, they will improve their competencies regarding integral watershed management and strengthen their social and methodological competencies. If these role models count on these competencies, they will promote integral watershed management practices and this way their rural communities will adopt an integral watershed management approach.

If theses rural communities adopt an integral watershed approach, they will guarantee the access to sufficient quality water in a sustainable way.

If we want to scale the integral watershed management approach, we need to sensitise key decision-makers about the topic.

If they are aware about the social and economic impact of deteriorated watersheds, they are going to promote the approval of sustainable water management policies.

If key decision-makers promote the approval of sustainable water management policies, the national and local water institutions will implement sustainable water management policies and this way they will contribute to our final goal: to achieve that rural communities access to sufficient quality water in a sustainable way.

Checking the assumptions in the pathways to sustainable changes (RTCCI):

You can use the following questions to check your pathways and start thinking about the following steps.

• When you look at the total picture, do you believe that the theory makes sense?
• Do the preconditions make sense as the logical steps toward the long-term outcome?
• How will we be able to bring about the outcomes at the levels we have predicted?
• Is anything going on in the real world that may make it difficult to get this theory off the ground the way we’ve planned it?
• Is this theory of change PLAUSIBLE? Have we created a compelling story about the pathway of change that would lead to the long-term goal in this community?
• Is this theory of change FEASIBLE? Do we have the capacities and resources to implement the strategies that would be required to produce the outcomes in the pathway of change?
• Is this theory of change TESTABLE? Have we specified how success will be measured clearly enough that we can recognize progress toward our goal when we see it? Have we defined indicators for each outcome in clear terms that a researcher or evaluator can use to produce a research plan?

Sources:

Muckenhirn, Rita. Trazando el camino hacia la visión. 1.4. Los cambios que queremos alcanzar. La Cuculmeca. Jinotega, Nicaragua. Octubre 2012.

Nkwake, Apollo M. 2020. Working with assumptions in international development program evaluation. Springer Nature. Switzerland. P 47.